World Cup 2026 probability simulator
Who will win the World Cup 2026? We simulate up to a million tournaments in your browser — Elo ratings, Poisson goals, live results — and let you explore every team's odds, bracket path and upset potential.
The World Cup 2026 kicks off this week, and every pundit, office pool and group chat is busy with predictions. We wanted ours to come from math instead of vibes — so we built a probability engine for the whole tournament and made it public.
It simulates the World Cup match by match: Elo ratings set each side's win expectancy, goals are drawn from Poisson distributions, and the new 48-team format — twelve groups, best thirds, a round of 32 — is modeled exactly, FIFA slot constraints included. Run 50,000 tournaments on load, or push it to 1,000,000 — the simulation fans out across your CPU cores with Web Workers and finishes in seconds, right in the browser.
The fun part is what you can ask it. Who will win the World Cup? (Spain, in about a third of all simulated universes — with Argentina, France and England chasing.) What's any team's most likely path through the bracket? Where do upsets hide? What happens to Portugal's title odds if you hand them 100 extra Elo points? There's a survival curve for every team, a projected bracket, a head-to-head tool, an upset index, and a what-if slider.
And once the real matches start, the page stops being a forecast and becomes a tracker: it polls FIFA's public match feed every five minutes, locks finished results into every simulation, and shows how each team's title odds move against the pre-tournament baseline. World Cup predictions that update themselves as the tournament unfolds.
No backend, no build step, no API keys. Open source, like everything in the lab.